Far from the “ultimate” path, Giancarlo Stanton hasn’t slammed the door in the doldrums

© Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday night, Aaron Judge He did nothing less than tie Babe RuthWho can’t be beaten long ago is 60 times home, but Giancarlo Stanton Homer’s hit almost overtook him. Just minutes after Judge started in the ninth game against the Pirates, Will Crowe He trimmed Pittsburgh’s 8-5 lead, hitting Stanton a Grand Slam tour. The shot gave some hope that he’s coming out of a long slump, but until he maintains something close to his normal production level, there’s plenty of cause for concern.

After Homer judge off Crowe, Anthony Rizzo double Jaleber Torres walked and Josh Donaldson Singles to load bases, with no one out. Crowe ran the count to 2-2 and then dropped and made a change. Stanton turned it on and hit a laser into left field:

First, the race at home was extreme. At 118 mph off the bat, tied Shuhei Ohtani‘s June 25 Homer turning off Logan Gilbert for the second fastest year; Stanton also hit the fastest, 119.8 mph explosion off the cubs Matt Swarmer. The 16-degree run-off angle was only one degree away from Stanton Lowest Homer this season On April 8 off Nathan Evaldianyway Xander Bogarts It was 14 degree washing line On August 31 and both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And the Kevin Kiermayer He had a 15-degree sling this year, too.

The Grand Slam that Stanton won was the second “grand slam” — an exit when he’s three-run down — in the Yankees’ season, after Rice’s shot from Donaldson. Galen Bex On August 17. for every MLB.com’s Sarah Lang, who made the Yankees the second team to have two of these in the same season, after the 1956 Pirates (one after the other) Danny Kravitzand the other Homer in the garden Roberto Clemente). Since 1925, there has been Only 32 of this type of carrier pigeon In the history of AL/NL.

Homer grabbed the Yankees’ 10th win in their last 14 games, but as they beat the Pirates again Wednesday night in a lopsided fashion (14-2), Stanton was one of two freshmen to go unscathed. He’s accompanied him in attacking strikes twice, coming to score both times, but at any time Ads That his stagnation is over seems premature.

Indeed, Stanton achieved an unfathomable goal. , the performance with his first All-Star appearance since 2017. Of the players with at least 90 PA since the first half, he has the lowest batting average and is in a hypothetical tie for 14th at the lowest in wRC+:

Worst landing in the second half by wRC +

At least 90 billboard appearances since the All-Star break.

It’s worth noting that Stanton’s poor performance may owe something to his injuries. He has been sidelined twice this season, missing nine games due to a strain in his right calf from May 25 to June 4, then 28 games due to left Achilles tendonitis from July 26 to August 25. – most notably a six-game party, where he hit five homers from June 23-29, then in back-to-back games on September 10-11 – he hasn’t come close to his normal level of production since the first job on the hit list:

The Divided Season of Giancarlo Stanton

a period Palestinian Authority HF BB% K% EV baby AVG OBP SLG wRC +
April 8 – May 24 168 11 8.3% 28.0% 97.2 .333 .285 .339 .523 141
Jun 4 – Jul 23 160 13 13.1% 28.7% 92.6 .127 .167 .277 .471 112
August 25 – September. 21 87 3 13.8% 33.3% 94.1 .163 .133 .253 .267 55

Stanton’s raw Statcast data for the full season tells us it’s merging, with an average exit speed of 95.1 mph (same last year, in the 99th percentile), a barrel rate of 19.2% (up from 15.7% last year, and a hit rate of 98%), and a hard hit rate. 53.1% (down from 56.3% last year but still in the 98th percentile). While his average exit velocity in the post-injury sections of his season has remained more than respectable — even with the lowest mark above his average of 91.9 mph in 2017, the year he hit 59 houses — those incredibly low BABIPs Astonishing highlights just how far his meager production has gone has been bolstered by occasional bursts of power, particularly that aforementioned gluttony in late June. He has .139 BABIP since his first assignment in IL, Lowest level for major currencies by 15 pips Of the players who have had at least 100 PA since the beginning of June, only 92 wRC+ have been produced since then.

Digging through his Statcast pages, a few things stand out. First, he struggles against fast balls:

Giancarlo Stanton vs Fast Bulls, 2021-22

spit season Palestinian Authority AVG xBA SLG xSLG woopa xwOBA EV Los Angeles baby
4-seek 2021 159 .301 .284 .556 .534 .406 .397 97.4 12.2 .345
4-seek 2022 117 .198 .191 .479 .385 .343 .326 97.2 22.3 .234
sinker 2021 84 .368 .363 .706 .713 .488 .493 93.6 6.4 .346
sinker 2022 68 .145 .242 .145 .290 .178 .276 87.2 2.7 .180

Source: baseball world

This sounds like two very different hitters, and if it weren’t for the 97-mph exit on the four tailors, you wouldn’t think either of them were Stanton. Last year he crushed fastballs, but this year, if he doesn’t hit one to send it over the fence, he’s in trouble. I didn’t have a place for that in the table, but his influence rate against four tailors went up, from 28.5% to 34%, and the Statcast play value against them dropped from 13 above-average runs to four above-average. It doesn’t inhale as many plungers as last year (16.3% vs. 17.9%), but the running value there has dropped from six runs above average to six below.

While Stanton doesn’t particularly struggle against fast balls high in the strike zone (primarily from four threads), his problems appear on those in the lower third as well as the inner and outer thirds. I’ve collected four plungers and sinks here to boost sample sizes:

Giancarlo Stanton vs Fast Bulls by location, 2021-22

region season Palestinian Authority AVG xBA SLG xSLG woopa xwOBA EV Los Angeles baby
Indoor (1-4-7) 2021 55 .294 .341 .549 .654 .366 .436 92.0 9.0 .275
Indoor (1-4-7) 2022 51 .174 .224 .261 .275 .200 .267 94.9 13.4 .194
External (3-6-9) 2021 37 .417 .307 .639 .502 .456 .354 103.8 -8.3 .520
External (3-6-9) 2022 24 .083 .091 .083 .126 .074 .094 91.3 1.2 .222
less (7-8-9) 2021 43 .349 .439 .744 .872 .455 .550 102.9 2.8 .313
less (7-8-9) 2022 30 .103 .234 .241 .372 .140 .287 100.4 -8.5 .095

Source: baseball world

Region numbers refer to Gameday regions.

Yikes. Stanton’s performance against these two types of fastball was appropriate (and possibly unlucky) in April and was great in May, but has been poor since:

Giancarlo Stanton vs Fastballs by month, 2022

Month Palestinian Authority AVG xBA SLG xSLG woopa xwOBA EV Los Angeles baby
April 36 .188 .242 .281 .449 .218 .355 95.0 15.0 .227
mayo 34 .345 .310 .586 .488 .442 .394 95.7 11.6 .381
June 40 .118 .170 .294 .312 .240 .269 85.8 23.1 .125
July 27 .174 .150 .478 .213 .335 .237 90.0 0.3 .154
August 11 .111 .198 .111 .215 .206 .274 92.3 12.5 .125
September 37 .097 .180 .226 .292 .226 .282 93.6 12.8 .118

I set the streak breaking as a reminder of his absences, but the general trend is clear: It’s been downward since he was first hit.

Note the contrast in the tables above when it comes to its starting angles. Unlike the judge, Stanton tends to hit a lot of homers even when he’s good, because he burns enough of them so they can get across the field. This year he hits them harder than any other time in the Statcast era but he didn’t get results:

Giancarlo Stanton globes

season Palestinian Authority AVG xBA SLG xSLG woopa xwOBA EV Los Angeles
2015 65 .308 .268 .369 .296 .294 .257 91.8 -12.4
2016 114 .281 .279 .298 .314 .253 .260 93.9 -12.6
2017 194 .222 .233 .237 .256 .200 .215 86.8 -15.8
2018 187 .342 .254 .385 .282 .317 .243 91.5 -13.7
2021 159 .308 .277 .327 .302 .278 .259 93.3 -15.1
2022 117 .205 .261 .214 .285 .184 .241 94.7 -14.0

Source: baseball world

2019 and 20 were omitted due to small samples.

Via Statcast, Stanton tops more balls than ever, which means he hits them at exit velocities of over 60 mph (there’s poor contact below, yellow semicircle) but with unproductive launch angles, generally less than zero:

That’s a career high rate of 35.5% of lead balls, up from 32% last year and a Statcast-era mark of 31.3%. Meanwhile, the nice point rate (the percentage of balls hit at launch angles in the 8-32-degree range, regardless of exit speed) has fallen to 26.1%, down from 32.6% last year and a career mark of 33%.

Stanton’s diminished performance on the ground coincides with a lower sprint speed on the ground, either because he cannot run as fast due to leg injuries or because he is trying to protect himself. bleak trend:

Giancarlo Stanton speeds

season feet/sec PT rank
2015 27.1 56
2016 27.5 64
2017 27.8 70
2018 27.8 70
2019 27.1 55
2020 25.7 24
2021 24.7 13
2022 24.3 4

Source: baseball world

Keep in mind that even prior to this season, Stanton had a string of leg injuries. In 2019, when he played only 18 regular season games, he was experiencing a left calf strain, a lateral lateral ligament strain in his right knee, and a right quadriceps strain. In 2020, when he played only 23 games, he had a strain in his right calf and strain in a left hamstring, and last year, he had a strain on a left quadrant and a strain on a right calf, although he managed to play in 139 games .

Since the beginning of August, the Yankees have only gone 24-24 while scoring 3.85 points per game. Beyond Judge, who earned 253 wRC+ in that period (.366/.505/.791), only two currently available regulars have run WRC+ for at least 100, Donaldson (125 wRC+) and Rizzo ( 109), and the latter was limited to 25 matches in that period due to injuries. Recently, Torres and Isaiah Keener Valiva Caught the hottest, the long-awaited emergence of Harrison Bader must help. Given his importance to the Yankees’ squad, it’s understandable why Stanton would want to play but be wary of exacerbating old injuries, even though the numbers say he’s doing more harm than good. Maybe it’s still a matter of getting the timing and mechanics back, but one has to wonder if he’s physically sound. Even Homer is well-timed here and there isn’t enough to convince anyone that his slump is truly over, but if the Yankees are to stay in October, they will need his big bat.

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