For the primary time since 1970, NFL Wild Card Weekend Options rematches in all six video games. From Tom Brady and the Bucks renew their acquaintance in Tampa in opposition to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to tag group rivals Cincinnati and Baltimore meet in Queen MetropolisEvery of the six wild card matches is stuffed with historical past and afterstories, and the group in NBC Sports activities Edge Have you ever set Wild Card Weekend picks and predictions heading into the upcoming occasion.
As sports activities bettors zoom in on every recreation and search for benefits they will reap the benefits of within the betting window they should establish and get rid of stale stats. For instance, a group’s report within the common season proved to matter little within the opening spherical of the postseason. Over the previous 14 seasons, the groups which have performed yet another recreation within the common season have been 25-26 SU and 21-29-1 ATS with groups sharing the identical report on 9 events.
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Most individuals agree that coaches and gamers are necessary. First-time playoff coaches have been way more profitable than rookie sign callers. Prior to now 4 years, beginning coaches have gone 8-3 SU and ATS (72.7%) when going through a extra skilled coach. Since 2004, first-year quarterbacks of their first playoff recreation have carried out poorly, going 17-40 SU and 17-39-1 ATS (30.4%) when going through an opposing sign caller with a playoff expertise.
Take and do no matter you need with these stats. Know that NBC Sports activities’ NFL group has crunched previous these numbers to search out their favourite performs for each recreation this weekend in the whole lot from sides and totals to participant props. The group consists of Jay Croucher (JD) and von Dalziel (@tweet), and Lawrence Jackson (@LordDontLose). Tail (or fade) as you see match.
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers -9.5 (Over/Underneath 43)
Word: 49ers score 4y All time with 32 playoff wins compiled over 27 years of playoff appearances – 26 within the NFL and one within the AAFC.
Crusher: DK Metcalf below 61.5 yards
Metcalfe had 55 and 35 receiving yards in his two video games in opposition to the Niners within the common season. Within the latter recreation, Metcalf was coated by Charvarius Ward, the Niners’ strongest cornerback. Anticipate Ward to get the Metcalf job once more and the Seahawks to focus on Tyler Lockett extra usually, who shall be coated by the weaker Decommore Lenoir.
Dalziel: Seahawks +10
Throughout all the historical past of the NFL, solely 14 instances have groups defeated the identical opponent thrice in a single season. The 49ers will attempt to do precisely that in opposition to the Seahawks right here.
Seattle scored simply 7 and 13 factors in two video games in opposition to San Francisco, however neither state of affairs was a super time to shore up the Seahawks. The Seahawks confronted the 49ers in Week 2 after a one-point victory over Russell Wilson and the Broncos on Monday Evening Soccer. The second assembly got here after the loss on Sunday in Week 14 earlier than the 49ers performed Thursday Evening Soccer (a shortened week) in Week 15. The Seahawks can be higher ready this time and rookie quarterbacks (comparable to Brock Purdy) would usually wrestle within the early recreation. The primary, as talked about earlier.
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Jackson: Kenneth Walker 16.5+ dashing makes an attempt (-105)
Kenneth Walker’s 16.5 o/u (-105) on rush makes an attempt is likely to be a lure, however I am taking the bait. He averaged 26 catches in his final three video games because the Seahawks made a concerted effort to run the ball to take some strain off Geno Smith. Apparently, the final time Walker had below 16.5 carries (12) was in opposition to the 49ers in Week 15. The Seahawks have been 9.5-point canines, however even within the two-point loss in opposition to the Chiefs in Week 16, Walker had 26 carries.
Word: That is the one Wild Card recreation in 2023 between two 4,000-yard passers in Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert.
Crusher: Austin Eckler over 36.5 yards
No group permits extra receiving yards to run in than the Jags. Jags rush protection has been stellar this season (6y finest in Rush EPA allowed) and their go protection was horrible. Anticipate the Chargers to focus on Ekeler on the passing recreation. Within the first assembly between these two groups, Ekeler was focused 8 instances for 48 yards.
Dalziel: Justin Herbert 37.5+ go makes an attempt (-120)
Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert are each making their profession debuts. I belief Herbert much more on this area of interest, and given Herbert’s resume in NBC Sports activities Primetime video games, I really like the probabilities he lights up in his first playoff recreation.
Herbert is second within the NFL with 4,739 dashing yards and 279 or extra dashing yards in 9 of 17 video games this season and 37 or extra go makes an attempt in 11 video games. I anticipate quite a lot of passes from Herbert, so he returns passes at 37.5. I are likely to over 280.5 yards.
Jackson: Travis Etienne OVER 76.5 Dashing Yards (-110)
Etienne has averaged over 77 dashing yards over the past 4 video games, together with 17 in opposition to the Elite Titans protection. The Chargers have given up 100 or extra dashing yards to 3 of the final 4 working backs they’ve confronted. Zack Moss could not do it as a result of Nick Foles was too busy giving the Chargers the ball. Run this Chargers group till confirmed in any other case.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Payments -9.5 (Over/Underneath 46.5)
Word: Buffalo has gained 10 of their final 11 video games at Orchard Park in opposition to Miami. Watch this unfold. If it doubles, bear in mind this: Within the final 13 video games that includes a distinction of 10 or extra factors, the underdog gained solely as soon as.
Crusher: James Cook dinner over 36.5 dashing yards
Over the previous two weeks, Buffalo’s working recreation has leaned extra on James Cook dinner, with Cook dinner outpacing Devin Singletary. 36.5 is fairly low for a possible RB1 on the 13-point favourite.
Dalzell: Sport general below 43.5 (-110)
Tua Tagovailoa is out for this recreation and now the margin has gone from -9.5 to -13.5 in Buffalo’s favour. With Skyler Thompson at quarterback, plus Tyrek Hill and Jaylen Waddell coping with accidents, I do not see Miami scoring greater than two objectives right here, so I am going to run the sport below.
Jackson: Josh Allen below 33.5 passing makes an attempt (-105)
In two video games in opposition to the Dolphins this season, Josh Allen has tried 103 passes. With the Payments being the 13.5 favourite it does not appear to be he’ll ever must do it once more which is why I like him to go below 33.5 go makes an attempt. Accidents have devastated the Dolphins, the largest being Tua Tagovailoa, who will not be there to commerce photographs with Allen.
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New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings -3 (Over/Underneath 48.5)
Word: The Vikings led the NFL in 4y Scored 1 / 4 this season and averaged 9.9 factors within the Ultimate 15. The Giants are ranked fifthy A mean of seven.4 factors in 4y each week.
Crusher: The Sport has an general rating of lower than 48.0
Star Vikings sort out Brian O’Neill, beginning middle Garrett Bradbury is swinging and the Vikings run has been horrible these days. The Giants protection is the healthiest all season, with Adoree Jackson on course for working backs, and abruptly the line of defense is a severe pressure, with Kayvon Thibodeaux 100% built-in together with Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams, and Azeez Ojulari. All the things signifies that the scoring recreation is decrease than the earlier one.
Dalziel: Minnesota Vikings -3 (-110)
This looks as if one of many tougher video games to beat on the checklist, however on condition that the Giants are 2-5-1 in ML of their final eight video games they usually’re clearly not taking part in their finest model of soccer and should fade away.
New York is 1-4 in ML of their final 5 highway video games, beating solely Washington. As a favourite, Minnesota has gone 12-0 in ML this season in comparison with 1-4 as an underdog. I’d take the Vikings as a favourite and return for probably the most dynamic offense at residence within the Dome.
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Jackson: Daniel Jones over 241.5 yards (-120)
Daniel Jones’ passing yardage report is about at 241.5 (-120) and I am in search of him to surpass that. Certain, he is thrown for lower than 200 yards in three of his final 4 video games, however you understand which a type of video games he is been in? In opposition to the Vikings, the place Jones threw for 334 yards. Moreover, the Vikings are giving up 29.6 factors per recreation of their final 5 contests. Whereas most of them trip Danny Dimes’ dashing gear, assume otherwise.
Word: Joe Borough has aged 19-4 ATS in his final 23 video games.
crusher: Samaje Perine over 16.5 dashing yards
Perine has surpassed that mark in 7 of his previous 8 video games, although Joe Mixon wasn’t round for two of these video games. Perrin squealed over the road in each video games in opposition to the Ravens (17 and 18 yards dashing). Cincinnati could not run the ball in any respect in opposition to Baltimore final week (the run wasn’t greater than 8 yards, 2.8 yards per carry general), so search for them to make use of Perine greater than anticipated as a change of tempo.
Dalzell: Sport general below 41.5 (-110)
Lamar Jackson’s standing on this recreation makes an enormous distinction, and if he will get out, everybody’s on the Bengals, and rightfully so. Even when Jackson does play, there should be a significant rust issue for a quarterback who hasn’t performed in over a month. Take the Bengals if Jackson is out, or take Underneath if he is in.
Jackson: Ja’Marr Chase 77.5+ receiving yards (-115)
Ja’Marr Chase Merely Balls In opposition to Crows. I take the lead at 77.5 (-115) yards. Chase averages 115.5 yards receiving per recreation in his profession in opposition to the Ravens. Even should you subtract his 201 dashing yards as a junior, he nonetheless averaged 87 yards in conferences in opposition to the Ravens.
Dallas Cowboys -2.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over/Underneath 45.5)
- Kickoff: Jan. 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
- Location: Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, Florida
- Dallas Sport Historical past: 35-29 (8 Tremendous Bowls – 5 wins)
- Tampa Bay Sport Date: 11-10 (2 Tremendous Bowl appearances – 2 wins)
- Sequence Historical past: Dallas and Tampa Bay have met 21 instances, together with two playoff video games. The Cowboys have gained 15 of their 21 video games together with the playoff video games. Nevertheless, the Bucs have defeated Dallas within the season opener in every of the previous two seasons.
Word: Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is an ideal 7-0 in his profession in opposition to the Dallas Cowboys averaging 277.9 yards with 15 complete TDs and 5 INTs.
Crusher: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5
Dallas’ go protection has collapsed. Over the previous 5 weeks, the Cowboys protection has been ranked twenty ninthy In Dropback EPA. The Cowboys made Gardner Mincio appear to be Patrick Mahomes, after which the following week Mincio might do nothing in opposition to the Saints by way of the air. In opposition to the Panthers, the Bucs confirmed they nonetheless had the cap to take advantage of and dominate a struggling secondary. Mix Dallas’ go protection with Dak Prescott’s latest obsession with turnarounds and the way intimidating he is seemed in opposition to the Chiefs, and it seems just like the unsuitable group is favored on this recreation.
Dalziel: Pirate +3
Tom Brady and Bucks get the absolute best draw as they tackle the Cowboys. Brady groups are 7-0 all-time vs. Dallas, together with a win in Week 1 this season. We’ve but to witness Tampa Bay’s peak or play its finest ball this 12 months, whereas Dallas performs mediocre soccer now. Their final three video games included losses to the Chiefs final week, a slim win in opposition to Philly and a backup quarterback in Week 16 and an additional time loss to Jacksonville the week earlier than. Nothing can be shocking in regards to the Bucs profitable this recreation outright.
Jackson: Buccaneers ML (+120)
Tom Brady is within the playoffs and there is not any one you’ll be able to belief extra within the postseason, even at 45. Taking the Buccaneers straight looks as if a lure, however the Cowboys’ latest struggles are laborious to disregard. Bok’s assault has been again on observe in latest weeks and they’re more healthy on either side of the ball than they’ve been in weeks.
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